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Math101
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Probability and StatisticsGrades 9–12

Fundamental Counting Principle

The fundamental counting principle multiplies the number of choices across successive stages to count complete outcomes efficiently.

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If a process has several stages, multiply the number of available choices at each stage—after accounting for any restrictions.

The multiplication principle

If stage one can occur in $m$ ways and, for each of those, stage two can occur in $n$ ways, then the two-stage process has

$$ mn $$

possible outcomes. With more stages, continue multiplying the number of choices available at each stage.

Why multiplication works

Imagine a tree diagram. Each of $m$ first branches produces $n$ second branches, giving $n$ outcomes repeated across $m$ groups. The total is repeated addition:

$$ \underbrace{n+n+\cdots+n}_{m\text{ groups}}=mn. $$

The principle compresses a large tree without listing every leaf.

Worked example: independent stages

The stages need not be probabilistically independent; what matters is knowing the available count at each branch.

Repetition rules

Clarify whether choices may repeat. A four-digit PIN with repetition allowed has $10^4$ possibilities. If all digits must differ, the count is

$$ 10\cdot9\cdot8\cdot7. $$

If the first digit cannot be zero, its stage has only $9$ choices, while later stages may have different counts.

Common mistakes

Adding stage counts instead of multiplying. A complete outcome needs one choice from every stage.

Using the same count after a no-repetition choice. Available options decrease.

Treating overlapping cases as disjoint. This double-counts shared outcomes.

Forgetting a leading-zero restriction. Codes and numbers may have different rules.

Assuming order never matters. Define what makes two outcomes distinct.

Quick self-check

  • What are the stages of one complete outcome?
  • How many choices are available at each stage after earlier decisions?
  • Is repetition allowed?
  • Are alternatives disjoint before their counts are added?
  • Would complement counting be simpler?
  • Does the answer distinguish ordered and unordered outcomes correctly?
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